Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
