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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the award. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the current race is distinctly different. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers rising collectively. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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